Mark Casey Online

Brief primary update:

John McCain has bounced an astounding 21 points in the national polls after his New Hampshire win, with voters apparently heartened by his apparent ability to appeal to an electorate. He now leads Huckabee by ten points, and Rudy “Let’s Just Win Florida” Giulianni is in a distant third.

Meanwhile, Hillary leads Obama by nearly ten points, though he is also up six points from his pre-Iowa stance. No word yet on whether or not she rigged New Hampshire by buying the electronic votes.

Rudy Giulianni has a much-discussed strategy for winning the GOP nomination, and that strategy is “if no one is going to like me, I might as well pretend the feeling is mutual.”

Also known as “The Florida Strategy,” Rudy is completely forgoing the usually-important caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and elsewhere, instead focusing all his time and resources on Florida, the final primary before the big show next month.

The only problem?  He’s falling nationally in the polls, and he has absolutely no money.  No, seriously.  His staff and consultants are forgoing their salaries, based on the presumed promise that he’ll pay them later.  I guess, you know, after he becomes president or something.

After all that fuss about Huckabee and Romney battling for the GOP’s top spot, no one was really thinking that McCain would take New Hampshire, and certainly not by a large margin.

But that’s exactly what he did last night, and his campaign appears to be gaining new momentum from disenfranchised Romney supporters and the expected flood of anti-Huckabee votes (apparently not everyone relishes the idea of nominating a Pastor-in-Chief).

In the meantime, Hillary somehow managed to overcome Obama’s double-digit lead in the polls and actually win the night. No word yet on whether or not Bill’s personal attacks against Obama had anything to do with the surge of Hillary supporters. But, what’s done is done, and the woman who wants politics to be a game (but gave a teary-eyed speech claiming the contrary yesterday) has started to win it again. Good for her… maybe not so good for Obama.

Just two days after winning in Iowa, the spotlight appears to be getting to Mike Huckabee. For one thing, the increased scrutiny that comes with being a frontrunner has thrown even more attention onto the candidate’s troubled son, who’s just run into some more poorly-timed trouble–an early-morning car accident.

Now, whispers have already begun suggesting that John McCain is primed to supplant the new leader for the GOP nomination.

The New York Times is reporting that the politicos of the Republican party are stepping away from the populist preacher candidate, fearing that he doesn’t have the chops to win nationally in the general election. I guess something about a Southern governor and religious fanatic seems a little too familiar to the GOP elite.

Oh, and did I mention that Mitt Romney just took Wyoming?

If Howard Dean, Rudy Giulianni, and Hillary Clinton can teach us anything, it’s that living up to people’s expectations can be difficult.

All three were leaders in seeking their party’s nomination at one point, and all three ended up on their face because people expected too much, watched too much, and got too little out of them.

Generally, there’s an advantage to starting lower and then being catapulted into the lead, as Obama and Huckabee have both done–but being in the lead this early still isn’t a great idea if you can’t handle it. McCain had the lead in 2000 until late in the nomination process, when the larger spotlight of “Frontrunner” showed people his flaws and gaffes, then the lesser known and more “likeable” George W. could swoop in an scoop up people’s insecurity votes.

Obama can handle it. He’s youthful, excited–people will find his enthusiasm appealing. He’ll wear the mantle of “Frontrunner” well because he’s not boring–that’s why Hillary and Romney’s support wilted in the spotlight. But they can still come back, with the right mix. Romney isn’t boring.

For now, good luck to Huckabee and Obama. They deserved to win this round.