Nate Silver has some interesting (devastating?) stats from the Mountain West:
In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico. The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states. What’s worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama. This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald’s turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004’s total.
Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain’s only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania, eh? Bad news. Last week, Silver suggested McCain’s best shot at victory was to avoid Pennsylvania and concentrate his efforts on maintaining red states — such as those in the Mountain West. But now, with such huge portions of the electorate already having locked in their votes, McCain is, well, in a difficult spot.
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