2008 Elections: What’s the X-Factor?

The Bradley Effect.  Cell phone voters.  African American turnout.  The historically unreliable youth vote.

Pollsters everywhere are trying to predict what sorts of crazy, unpredictable happenings might shake up our expectations on election day.  The biggest hot topic is, of course, the “Bradley Effect” — the idea that racists will tell pollsters that they’re going to vote for Obama when really they have no intention of doing so.  Or maybe they want to, but eventually can’t bring themselves to do it.

I never put too much stock in that.  It just seems like too much pop-psychology, not enough logic.  Other questions remain, like what percentage of voters own cell phones only (like me), which pollsters have a hard time reaching?  What percentage of the youth vote (do I still qualify?) won’t show up?  Will African American turnout be unprecedented, or surprisingly average?

Well, I have an idea about an X-factor which will be far, far more important than any of these, and that X-factor is: Lack of enthusiasm among McCain supporters.  What percentage of McCain supporters are so unenthusiastic that they won’t show up on election day?

We’re already seeing some of this in Oregon, where turnout is down, down, down in red areas.

I’m wondering what percentage of people will answer their phone when a pollster calls, tell them that they prefer to vote for John McCain, but not really be all that excited about it (polls indicate very low enthusiasm for McCain).  How many, on November 4. simply won’t find the time, energy, or desire to do the work of voting for McCain?

I’m guessing it’s worth at least a point or three.  Not a huge difference, but when you’re already running behind by double digits or near-double digits in most states and nationally, that’s worth a lot when you’re hoping for a last minute surge.

In the meantime, Marc Ambinder prints a memo from the McCain campaign with a lengthy explanation about why they think Obama’s support has topped out.  I think I agree with them (in some ways), but the question is: when he’s above 50%, how much of his support do you need to siphon off?

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