The big push in Republican commentary and strategy seems to be that McCain needs to win Pennsylvania or die. It would certainly be nice for the Republican ticket, but with polls showing him trailing by 12 points in the state, it may be a fool’s errand.
Nate Silver suggests a different plan of action, based more safely on the idea of maintaining wins in more traditionally red states:
1. Give-Ups. McCain should concede Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.
2. Offensive Targets. McCain should remain engaged in New Hampshire and New Mexico.
3. Defensive Targets. Some reasonably vigorous defense is required in Viginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.
4. Gambles. McCain should limit his activity in Florida, Missouri and Indiana, and hope a national surge of some kind brings those states back into his column.
This plan would be a little more appealing to me if I were a GOP strategist, as all of these states have a decent history of supporting the Republican Party — far more so than Pennsylvania, at least. It, or some variation of it, seems to be the smartest way to play the final week.
Of course, the McCain campaign is doing just the opposite, “flooding” the state with several events a day, placing all of their last-week eggs in the Pennsylvania basket. This from Marc Ambinder:
Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign believes, is the most brittle of the remaining states. Public and private polls give Obama a double digit lead in the state, but McCain advisers believe that Obama is underperforming in the suburbs and exurban counties around Pittsburgh. Tensions between the two campaigns in the state is acute.
The obvious drawback, as David Frum will tell you, is that by doubling down on Pennsylvania, McCain does nothing for struggling down-ballot Republicans in any number of other red states, who are desperately trying to hold on to their House and Senate seats in the face of a surging Democratic Party.
McCain is trying to win a race that many already feel he’s lost, and he’s starving other candidates nationwide from support and attention they need to win. Good news for Democrats. Bad news for a badly fractured GOP.
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(rubbing hands together Montgomery Burns style) Excellllllent!