Obama, Huckabee: Big Winners, Big Expectations

If Howard Dean, Rudy Giulianni, and Hillary Clinton can teach us anything, it’s that living up to people’s expectations can be difficult.

All three were leaders in seeking their party’s nomination at one point, and all three ended up on their face because people expected too much, watched too much, and got too little out of them.

Generally, there’s an advantage to starting lower and then being catapulted into the lead, as Obama and Huckabee have both done–but being in the lead this early still isn’t a great idea if you can’t handle it. McCain had the lead in 2000 until late in the nomination process, when the larger spotlight of “Frontrunner” showed people his flaws and gaffes, then the lesser known and more “likeable” George W. could swoop in an scoop up people’s insecurity votes.

Obama can handle it. He’s youthful, excited–people will find his enthusiasm appealing. He’ll wear the mantle of “Frontrunner” well because he’s not boring–that’s why Hillary and Romney’s support wilted in the spotlight. But they can still come back, with the right mix. Romney isn’t boring.

For now, good luck to Huckabee and Obama. They deserved to win this round.

Related Posts:

• Giulianni’s “Florida Strategy” is… bad.
• McCain takes New Hampshire, Hillary shocks Obama
• Huckabee Gets a ‘Little Bit Country’ in South Carolina
• Among Oscar Winners and Politicians, Perception is Key
• McCain on the Move